ABSTRACT. The general perception about adult social care is that with an ageing society demand for care will grow in a predictable way in line with the growth in the population. I have been looking at the different way that local authorities in the United Kingdom approach their delivery of care and I have found significant variations in the outcomes for citizens depending on where they live. I have recorded the range of approaches taken by these authorities to care delivery. On the basis of my findings I look to demonstrate that demand for care is as much determined by the way this care is delivered as it is determined by growth in the population. As a result of my work I have explored new ways of predicting future demand for care. This paper follows my earlier work including “Use of Resources in Adult Care” (Department of Health, 2009), “Emerging Practice in Outcome-based Commissioning for Social Care” (Institute of Public Care, 2015) and “What Are the Opportunities and Threats for Further Savings in Adult Care?” (Institute of Public Care, 2016). pp. 152–187

Keywords: adult social care; demand; local authority; UK

How to cite: Bolton, John (2016), “Predicting and Managing Demand in Social Care,” American Journal of Medical Research 3(2): 152–187.

Received 4 September 2016 • Received in revised form 15 September 2016
Accepted 16 September 2016 • Available online 25 September 2016


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Institute of Public Care,
Oxford Brookes University

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