ABSTRACT. This text examines the complex discourse surrounding China’s development and its perception by Western observers. It critiques the various narratives and predictions about China’s future, ranging from economic collapse to sustained growth, and from democratization to increased authoritarianism. The article highlights the often-ideological nature of these analyses, which are frequently tied to foreign policy and national security concerns rather than objective assessment. It traces the evolution of Western perspectives on China, from optimism about market liberalization and potential democratization following China’s entry into the WTO, to the current “China-threat discourse.” The text argues that many Western analyses fail to consider China’s unique civilizational context and its alternative model of development, which challenges assumptions about the inevitability of liberal democratic capitalism.

Keywords: China-watching; economic development; Western perception; ideological discourse; civilizational analysis; Alternative development model

How to cite: Peters, M. A. (2025). “China-Watching and the Future of China in 10, 20, and 50 Years,” Geopolitics, History, and International Relations 17(1): 9–31. doi: 10.22381/GHIR17120251.

Received 2 June 2024 • Received in revised form 27 June 2024
Accepted 29 June 2024 • Available online 10 July 2024